It seems that the winter past wants to throw a curve our way. After last nights meager rain, .22 of an inch in Healdsburg (about the same for SR) it should clear out this afternoon and evening and then turn nice for weekend festivities, lower 70’s in some areas by Saturday (Mar. 27) afternoon. Sunday night and Monday look to be wet again. The current National Weather Service map shows the jet stream entraining moisture from Western Pacific tropical storm Omais and building a predicted 972mb low just off the Oregon Coast by Wednesday. That low pressure center is indicative of a typical winter storm. It may bring a high swell to the coastal region, thunderstorms and hazardous winds. With the high March sun angle and breaks in the clouds, It could get very interesting on the north coast as thunderstorms develop. Of course every model run is different, the jet stream could stay farther north too, changing the forecast.
Spending a little weather geek time last night, the Weather Channel reported that east Texas was hammered by severe weather yesterday as was part of western Louisiana. There were numerous reports of downed trees and power lines from straight line thunderstorm winds from the (Storm Prediction Center). When Spring arrives, this type of event would usually bring more severe circumstances, ie; tornadoes, large hail.
Dr. Greg Forbes, a severe weather expert with the WC writes that plenty of dynamics are in place for severe storms, but a lack of deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, due to colder winter storms than normal in the south, has pushed the warm humid air to the Yucatan Peninsula. That warm air is a key ingredient for severe thunderstorm development in the middle part of the U.S. Whereas dew points would be in the upper 50’s to 70’s this time of year, Corpus Christi has a dew point this morning of 42. Anybody that’s been to the Gulf Coast this time of year knows how sticky it can be.
During Sonoma County’s lightning outbreak last Summer, the dew points were in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s at higher elevations.